Apophenia

In just about every crime movie, there’s a scene where an investigator is in front of a large, corked board with random pictures pinned on it.

One side might have the victims, the other side might have the scene, the murder weapon, the autopsy photos, the potential suspects, and anything that could potentially have to do with the case. 

The investigator, by keeping the visuals front and center, is looking for any missing clues to jar a connection that might lead to solving the case. 

The corked board allows him to “set the stage” of problem solving, searching for any correlation, which might offer a pathway to a resolution.

Humans love finding patterns in any problem. But sometimes they patterns are helpful, sometimes they are not. 

When staring at the board searching for patterns, the problem solver must be aware of an unknown bias called “Apophenia.” Apophenia is the propensity to mistakenly detect patterns or connections between unrelated events, objects or occurrences.

The term was first coined in 1958 by German psychiatrist Klaus Conrad during his study of schizophrenia. However, it is an effect of brain function that is not limited to those with a form of psychosis — and is now commonly recognized in health as well. 

A common example of apophenia is how many choose their lottery ticket numbers. Often, people select numbers based on birthdates of loved ones or significant days in their life, like anniversaries. But all lottery numbers are randomly picked, so there isn’t a connection between sentimental dates and the numbers chosen. 

Yet, we still make one.

According to Dr. Hannah Rose, an expert in this field, “In 2017, psychologists Zack W. Ellerby and Richard J. Tunney studied how we make decisions. They reported that those who notice an illusory pattern may start to believe that the outcome of an event is not determined by chance, but instead by previous outcomes or choices. This can lead an individual to make a choice based on probability matching, rather than by selecting the choice with the highest probability of being successful. For instance, gamblers might start to believe that a win is coming because they see a pattern in lottery numbers, the roulette wheel or on the races. If they make two small wins in a row, this pattern may create the strong belief that they will certainly have a third win. This could lead one to place a large bet, which would be a risky financial decision based on a perceived pattern. The same can be true of trading decisions or business investments.”

Finding patterns can help us think clearly and solve problems. 

However we must be aware of the dangers of apophenia, which can lead us to the wrong conclusions. 

The longer the investigator looks at the board in hopes of finding a connection, the chances of detecting a mistaken one become just as great.

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