Dan Campbell and the Gambler's Fallacy

When the Detroit Lions named Dan Campbell their head football coach in 2021, he boldly states that his team would be busting kneecaps, play ultra-aggressive and compete with great passion. 

Campbell’s team would be an extension of his personality, as he begins his working day with a stop at Starbucks with two venti Pike Peeks coffee with a double shot of espresso in each. 

During his three seasons as head coach, Campbell has taken a downtrodden team from the basement of the NFC North to the NFC Championship game, one win away from the Super Bowl. 

In every game during his three years as head coach, Campbell has been aggressive taking risks, throwing caution to the wind. The results have been 50-50. Win some, lose some.

In the biggest game of his young head coaching career, Campbell’s aggressive behavior cost an opportunity to play on the biggest stage. 

"It's easy hindsight. I get it. I get that, but I don't regret those decisions, and it's hard," Campbell said.

"It's hard because we didn't come through, and it wasn't able to work out, but I don't. And I understand the scrutiny I'll get — that's part of the gig — but it just didn't work out."

Being aggressive can at times be worthwhile. However, not all decisions qualify for a proactive approach. When Campbell unilaterally goes for it on every fourth down, passing up the opportunity for a potential three points, believing the next result will turn in his favor, he is falling into what is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy. 

Gambler's Fallacy refers to the erroneous thinking that a certain event is more or less likely given a previous series of events. But when each event is considered independent, its results have no bearing on past or present occurrences.

Every fourth down is different, and every game is different, which requires different solutions predicated on the current situation.

The most famous example of the Gambler's Fallacy occurred at the Casino de Monte-Carlo in Monaco in 1913. The roulette wheel's ball had fallen on black several times in a row causing people at the table to believe it would fall on red next. So, people aggressively started pushing their chips.

The ball did fall on the red square, but only after a total of 26 turns. Accounts state that millions of dollars had been lost by then. 

For us, each decision we make in a competitive environment or in our daily life must stand alone. What happened in the past doesn’t matter. If we fall into the Gambler’s Fallacy, believing eventually the decision will be correct, we will end up like many at the Monte Carlo roulette table. Broke. 

Only when we:

1. Identify the problem
2. Gather the relevant information
3. Identify alternatives
4. Weigh the evidence
5. Second order think the potential decision
6. Act
7. Review

Can we make the best decision?

Being aggressive is only good when the above seven steps have taken place. 

Let us know what you think..

Want to Advertise with us? Click here.