We Must Eliminate Plan Continuation Bias

Catholic school nuns loved to teach the concept of “sticktoitiveness.” They wanted their students not to give up, to stay the course, to always finish what they started. It was a common theme that became engrained in daily behavior. But was it good? Is being so rigid in our behavior helping us? Should we always finish a book we start even if we don't enjoy it? Should we always stay the course and not change even though it’s wrong? 

The Torrey Canyon Tanker was one of the largest vessels of its time, carrying more than 119,000 tons of crude oil, bound for Cornwall, England. Because of the rough seas and current, the boat was pulled off course and needed to navigate around the deadly reef known as the Seven Stones. Captain Pastrengo Rugiati was a regimented man who always followed protocols. When notified the ship was off course, Rugiati decided to stick with his original plan because he did not want to risk a two-hour delay waiting for the right tides to deliver his crude oil on time. Rugiati was slow to adjust even though everyone on the ship knew he was heading for those deadly rocks. 

What Rugiati did is known as "plan continuation bias." The bias occurs when people stick to the plan even if the plan appears wrong. Now, you might say that sounds ridiculous; however, more often than not, once a plan is in place, any adjustment to the plan becomes a challenge, and our "sticktoitiveness” takes over. This bias often occurs in the airline industry. Airline pilots believe they can narrowly escape bad weather approaching and develop a bias called: "get-there-itis." Accident investigators often believe crashes occur because of this bias — that the idea of a pause or a change of approach becomes not just aggravating, expensive or embarrassing — it becomes literally unthinkable. 

Developing plans is fun, and when they work without a hitch, they make us look smart. But our skills as leaders can never be judged by the original plan. Our skills will always be judged by our ability to think quickly on our feet, to anticipate problems—instead of reacting to them — and making quick adjustments when the time is right. Had Rugiati made one small adjustment instead of being devoted to his plan, he would not have caused the largest oil spill in the North Atlantic. 

Sticking to something shows persistence. Changing on the go shows intelligence. 

Smart always wins.

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