NFL Vacancies and the 37 Percent Rule

Several NFL organizations are in the process of hiring new coaches and general managers. Typically, they’ll create a long list of candidates, then begin interviews. After an extensive first round, they’ll bring back the top two or three before making a final decision.

The process seems logical enough, but is it really that effective if six- to eight head coaches of the 32 NFL teams are terminated after each season?

Franchises may benefit from considering a famous mathematics puzzle from the 1960s known as “The Secretary Problem.” In essence, if they’re interviewing a group of applicants, how do they maximize the chances of hiring the single best? The challenge ultimately isn’t who should be chosen for a position, but rather how many people should be interviewed before a final decision is reached.

Mathematicians concluded that to resolve “The Secretary Problem,” employers needed to decide on either the total number of applicants they wanted to interview or the length of time they wanted to interview applicants for.

Whichever path is agreed to then requires two additional steps: The “look” and then the “leap.”

The “look” phase means organizations interview a wide range of candidates without making any decisions. They then must narrow their list to only 37 percent of the possibilities (typically three out of eight). But instead of settling for one of those three, they then begin another round of interviews with entirely different people, hoping to find someone better. If they do, that person is the one they must hire.

Most teams adhere to the look phase, but fail to get into the “leap” stage where they could potentially find a better match. It’s a common challenge for so many of us. We make rash decisions, quickly selecting what we feel is the best option without considering that there could be other possibilities. Then, when our selection doesn’t pan out, we grow frustrated and wonder where we went wrong.

By establishing the 37 percent rule, though, we set in place an acceptable standard of excellence, then strive for more in hopes of ultimately discovering the best.

When a profession loses one-quarter of its workforce annually, there is a major problem.

Perhaps the 37 percent rule can help solve it.