The Danger of Following the Crowd

Former Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chair Charlie Munger once said: “Only dead fish go with the flow.” 

His point is well taken, as whenever a leader decides to join the competition in a strategy, he/she is destined to run into a traffic jam. 

Munger was a believer in zigging when everyone else was zagging. 

He understood when a leader is always going along with the flow, the margin for error is greater and the competition is tougher. Success is often duplicated and copied, which then creates a log jam. 

A traffic jam is often the first sign that some strategy is reaching its expiration date. There is validity in continuity, and following the age-old creed, “if it isn’t broke, why fix it?” has merit. But only to a degree.  

As leaders, we are expected to anticipate problems. We must know they’re coming when we are stuck in traffic. 

Early on, a successful strategy has few proponents because the strategy isn't successful yet. There are few people on the highway because there is no way to know whether that highway is going to get you where you want to go.

But as it becomes more apparent that, yes, this is a good route, the traffic gets heavier and heavier. There are copycats everywhere. 

As the vehicles start to jam up and grind to a halt, that strategy is past its point of usefulness. But as Munger pointed out, dead fish keep going with the flow. The cars keep flooding in from the on-ramps because no one else is aware of the traffic jam. Creative thinking has come to a stop, and sticking to an outdated successful plan provides comfort, security and most importantly, an excuse when things don’t go well. 

As leaders, we need to understand that all strategies have a shelf life. Constant review, consistently asking “How can we improve?” is the only way a leader can keep from being stuck in the traffic jam. 

This isn’t to imply there must be a shift in philosophy, but rather a shift within the operation of how to best proceed. If we go with the flow, we will become dead. Therefore, we must be proactive in our approach, which requires us zigging while the traffic is zagging. 

The best way to avoid the traffic jams is to:

1. Be Brave. Have enough confidence to pivot. Have enough research to support your shift. And don’t look back. Being brave is the most important step.

2. Think like a contrarian. A contrarian mindset involves challenging the status quo and questioning widely accepted truths. It can also mean being comfortable with discomfort, seeing opportunities where others don't, and taking risks when others choose safety. 

3. Evolve or Die. As Eric Shinseki, the former chief of staff of The United States Army, once said, “If you don’t like change, you will like irrelevance even less.” Accept the reality that changing strategies is good. But never go away from your core organizational principles. 

We all hate being stuck in traffic, so let’s avoid the jams — and move away from the flow. 

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