Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity

Rod Serling, the creator and head writer of the popular 1960s television series The Twilight Zone, used unique storylines and twists to explore how humans behave. 

He was famous for using thought-provoking narratives using science fiction, horror and suspense to his storytelling, often ending the story with an unexpected outcome. 

In one episode, we find a husband and wife back in their hotel room after stealing what they believe is junk from an antique store. When the husband opens the camera box, he takes a self-developing photo of his wife, that shows her in the immediate future. The camera can predict the future, which delights these two criminals as they begin to look for ways to use the camera to their benefit. 

In today’s ever-changing world we would love to use that special camera to predict the future, to show us the best way to lead those around us. Jennifer Garvey Berger and Keith Johnston don’t have a special camera. They do, however, run a global leadership center in New Zealand and in 2016, co-authored a book titled “Simple Habits for Complex Times.” 

Their book begins with the premise we are living in a VUCA world- one with volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. Because we have unlimited information and data at our instant disposal which is beneficial on one hand and can change instantly. Leaders must consider more factors; they cannot use the past to predict a uncertain future. In the past, according to the authors, “Evolution made people pretty good at making decisions according to what worked in the past. But in many circumstances, previously reliable understandings no longer apply. Mastering this necessary new skill means forming new habits of mind.

What are the new habits we need to incorporate into our daily lives?

• Complexity abounds. Address it, but don’t add to it. Sort your challenges into one of two categories: Probable or possible. 

• Strive to see complex systems as a whole. Ask how the components combine to lean toward certain outcomes. To address systemic problems, seek multiple perspectives on the issues and try to see the big picture before you start testing solutions.

• Though you may know little of what the future holds, set a clear and unambiguous direction. Start with a shared vision, not a snapshot of the future or a set of targets but establishing a direction that moves your organization toward the story you want to tell.

• People think rationally and emotionally. The mix of many people’s logic and feelings adds up to the best decisions. Understand The human brain has an enormous capacity not only to not see the whole picture but also to not notice that it hasn’t seen the whole picture.

• Help people develop greater capacity to accept and engage with VUCA. Don’t hire only the smartest people. Look for those who have demonstrably learned from failure.

• Eons of natural selection coded you to act first and think later. You must adapt to a new world that demands the opposite. Create a curious, learning-first, “feedback-rich organization.”

Serling reminds us at the end of the episode the future is uncertain and those trying to rig the system won’t survive, as the husband and wife end up dying over their selfish behavior with the camera.

Instead of looking for a camera, use the Berger and Johnston method.